keywords: Homestead, fish, output, projection
The study was on projection of homestead fish output in Adamawa State, Nigeria: Markovian approach. The objectives of the study were to: describe the farm sizes of homestead fish farmers in Adamawa State and to project its future output at a long run. Data were collected using structured questionnaire administered to 150 fish farmers using snowball sampling techniques and were analysed using descriptive statistics and Markov chain processes. Majority of the farmers live in semi-urban area and rear catfish in ponds that are less than 40m3 on a temporary land. Also, they were homestead ponds containing less than 4,000 fingerlings that they sale at harvest. The projection showed more than 2000kg of output per production. It is concluded that majority of the farmers have higher output on the long run. The study recommends that; youth and women should be engaged in fish farming as it promises higher output at the long run.