keywords: Multi-state, class of graduation, transition probability, transition intensity, prevalence
Monitoring students’ academic performances are becoming increasingly important in the face of different technological advancement which may serve as a distraction to weak students. Performance is often monitored on a student-to-student bases which is highly time-consuming. It is also done through some common statistical analysis which has been grossly inefficient as progressions of students through the grades are not often considered. An all-encompassing way of evaluating students’ academic performance and progression using multi-state model is presented and demonstrated using cumulative grade point averages (CGPA) of a set of students who are expected to graduate at the same time. The results obtained based on the data show that students are about 12 times more likely to move from probation to pass than move in the opposite direction. Also, students are about 80% likely to move from pass grade to third class than move from third class to pass. Based on these results and other results obtained, we conclude that movement from probation to second class lower is more likely than movement from second class lower to first class. Hence with some learning support being offered to students in the bottom half of the grade ladder, performances can be improved.