keywords: Absorbing chain, Chapman-Kolmogorov Equations, Markov Processes, Random walk, Recurrent state, Time Homogeneity
In this study, we considered a Markovian approach in studying the behavior of the academic staff grade levels transitions in Private University in Nigeria. This is to determine the proportion of staff recruited, promoted and withdrawn from various grade levels in the Private Universities over the years and also to forecast the expected manpower structure of the Universities from 2021/2022 to 2030/2031 Academic Sessions. Secondary data were obtained from the Human Resources Department of a Private University in Nigeria for 2016/2017 to 2020/2021 Sessions and were used to evaluate the method with the help of several existing Markov chain laws, theorems, and formulas. The findings from the analysis show that the Academic Staff Grade transition flow is stationary over the observed time period. Also, it was predicted that, at the beginning of 2030/2031 session, the expected staff structure of the Universities will consist of 3 Graduate Assistants; 25 Assistant Lecturers; 37 Lecturer II; 55 Lecturer I; 36 Senior Lecturers; 7 Readers and 42 Professors if the current recruitment and promotion policies in the University remain unchanged. In conclusion, it was observed that the institution is in need of more Lecturer I, Senior Lecturer and Professors than the number already recruited. While it was also observed that the number of Graduate Assistant, Assistant Lecturer, Lecturer II and Readers were to be reduced to make the system effective.